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The Cyprus Bail-out: Closing a Zombie Bank – Creating a Zombie Economy
25 March 2013

The March 25th Eurozone deal on Cyprus offers a EUR 12.5 billion bail-out of Cyprus: EUR 7.5 billion in loan refinance for the government of Cyprus; the remainder for the recapitalisation of the Cyprus banking system. Yet the political mishandling of the negotiations by the Eurozone and its deliberate attempt to destroy the international reputation of an EU Member State expose the deep incompetence and deleterious nationalism still at work in Europe. It casts grave doubts over the ability of the Eurozone to manage its far more serious economic challanges. And it sows the seeds of the next financial crisis in Cyprus.

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Cyprus Oil and Gas: Strategic Development Options
23 March 2013

In May 2012, Navigator published a short brief on the status and potential of hydrocarbon exploration in Cyprus. With the Cyprus financial crisis currently in full swing, it's worth taking a renewed look at oil and gas potential, and our forecasts from this time.

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The Destruction of Cyprus
23 March 2013

The Eurozone insistence on a Cyprus bank deposit confiscation has almost nothing to do with a desire to “save” Cyprus, and everything to do with its destruction.

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Economic Challenges and Priorities for Cyprus
07 March 2013

The two-round Cypriot presidential election in February provided Nikos Anastasiades of the DISY Party with a convincing majority for his election as President. The objective of this article is to examine the economic challenges and opportunities facing the new government in the first 12 months of its administration.

 

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The Cyprus Bail-out: Challenges, Opportunities and Lessons from Greece
13 December 2012

This article evaluates the basic elements of the Cyprus bail-out package and compares how this programme and the fundamental economic situation of Cyprus compare with that of Greece. It concludes that if implemented properly and proactively by Cypriot public authorities, this programme will have severe short-term recessionary impacts, but over the long term could restore the competitiveness and a disciplined fiscal framework to the Cypriot public sector.

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The ECB, LTRO and the EUR 2 Trillion Big Bazooka
04 March 2012

Although the recent Eurozone decisions (agreement on Greek PSI, greater economic coordination, a debt brake, etc) and the European Central Bank's second tranche of Long Term Refinancing Operation have given a temporary respite to markets, the specific implementation of these policies has not yet been tested in actual market conditions. As such, the risks to the European and global economies continue, despite positive headlines. This article looks at whether the piecemeal policy decisions in Europe constitute a EUR 2 trillion "Big Bazooka" and what the future risks in Europe are.

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The Mother of all Carry Trades
14 January 2012

The ECB’s decision to lend EUR 498 billion at an average rate of 1% for 3 years to European banks is turning into the mother of all carry trades.

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