Improve your long-range strategic forecasting and analysis
WHAT IS SCENARIO PLANNING?
Scenario planning is a tool developed in the early 1970s by multinational oil companies in response to the unforeseen impacts of the oil price shocks. Led by Shell Petroleum, scenarios were developed in an attempt to model the impact of unforeseen events beyond the traditional 3-5 year strategic planning cycle.
Scenario planning is intended as a complement to normal strategic planning. While most strategies tend to have a life time of 3-5 years, business conditions can change dramatically during this time.
The application of scenarios are a vital complement to strategic planning. They analyse and explore specific questions, enabling groups of managers and other stakeholders to improve their understanding of the strategic business environment, as well as the magnitude of changes faced by a company.
2-day in-company training course
1-day preparation and follow-up
Course is delivered in-person or online
Instructor: Philip Ammerman
Pricing: Upon Request, depending on number of participants, degree of customisation, and travel
SCENARIO PLANNING TRAINING
INTRODUCTION | AGENDA | PREPARATION & FOLLOW-UP | CERTIFICATES | TRAINER
Scenario planning training will help you and your team to collectively think and prepare your company for the future.
Navigator Consulting's Scenario Planning Training will help to reflect on the current business, future trends, and competitive impacts. When completed, your corporate scenario plan will give you a new strength of vision with which to understand how your company can evolve and compete. It gives you a narrative against which to measure and understand how your world and your sector is changing. And it enables you to make better-informed strategic decisions.
This in-company training programme is designed to help you answer a key question that informs your business strategy and environment. Rather than deal with a hypothetical case study, we will spend 2 days in a deep-dive on the questions that matter to you most.
Some of the typical questions or examples of questions designed to be answered by Scenario Planning include:
In 5 years, how far will the technological environment have changed? How will my customers be interacting with my enterprise?
In 10 years, what demand will exist for my core business product or service? How will we have to change our service quality or provision to adapt and compete?
In 10 years, what will the European automotive sector look like? What market share will be held by electric, hybrid and internal combustion engine technologies? What market opportunities will present themselves?
In 10 years, what will wealth management and private banking look like in Asia? What key risks can we identify? How should we diversity our wealth management strategy to avoid risks and capitalise on opportunities?
Introduction to Scenario Planning
Defining key question to be answered
Defining the scenario timeline
Defining the scenario planning team and data sources necessary
Brainstorming the core scenario and its key questions
Identifying drivers of scenarios
Identifying barriers of scenarios
Identifying key uncertainties of scenarios
Building the scenario matrix
Narrating each scenario
Presentation and reality check for each scenario
Data gathering and next steps
TRAINING PREPARATION & FOLLOW-UP
We will take half a day to prepare for the training together with you. This includes introducing ourselves, discussing the key questions to be answered by the scenario team, understanding who should be included in the training, and discussing data and confidentiality.
Participants will be asked to review an introduction to the training, including supplemental reading resources and terms of engagement.
A few days following the training, we will implement brief exit interviews with the trainees and outline what the next steps should be within your firm to implement scenario planning and ensure its relevance to your wider strategic planning, forecasting and risk assessment functions.
All managers who complete the training will be awarded Certificates of Participation. These can be co-branded with your company's logo.
ABOUT THE TRAINER
Philip is a consultant, entrepreneur and investment advisor who has advised start-ups, investors and enterprises on digital disruption, internationalisation and investment-led growth since 1994. He is founder of Navigator Consulting, Numenor Capital and the Centre for Innovation & Entrepreneurship.
Philip started his consultancy career in 1992. He supported the first wave of disruption in sectors such as banking and travel between 1995 and 2000, when the first dot.com crash took place.
In parallel, he supported “real economy” investments, primarily in industry and manufacturing, that took place in Greece, Central & Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. He has advised on over 220 investment transactions, (including M&A, loans and restructuring) with a total investment value exceeding € 6 billion.