On 11 November, the Government of Cyprus announced several new measures to fight the COVID-19 Pandemic. The two key measures include a partial lockdown of Limassol and Paphos, which is where approximately 70% of new cases have emerged over the past months.
In response, Navigator Consulting will be taking the following measures:
1. We will stop all office operations unless an exceptional situation arises. All staff in Cyprus will be working from home.
2. Any company consultations or meetings scheduled between November 12 and November 30 will be rescheduled for Zoom, or rescheduled in person once the lockdown restrictions end.
3. Any company travel between Limassol, Paphos, Nicosia, Larnaca and other locations will stop, unless there is an exceptional requirement or urgency.
4. Our Digital Transformation for Small Enterprises training, originally scheduled for 9-10 December as a live training, will be moved to a 4-session Zoom training with the agreement of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce & Industry, and the Human Resources Development Authority.
We apologise for any inconvenience this may cause, but we feel this is the best course of action given the public health situation today.
We would also like to remind our clients and friends that this development has been forecast by our firm, so it should not come as a surprise:
On July 8th, we published our forecast that there would be a Second Wave of COVID cases in the fall. We were quite surprised to see this Second Wave materialize at least 3 months earlier than expected, and extend to Cyprus.
On August 3rd, we published our finding that the first indications of the Second Wave were already visible in Cyprus and key European countries.
On September 3rd, we published clear evidence that the Second Wave was visible and would require enhanced public support measures.
Given present trends, we believe that:
The partial lockdowns seen in Cyprus, Greece and other countries will not be as effective as expected to stop the spread. In particular, continued operation of companies, schools and mass transit as seen as vectors of propagation.
We believe the mass-distribution of a COVID-19 vaccine will take at least one more year or more. We do not believe the vaccine will be effective in 2021 on any major scale.
As a result, we believe we will be in a rolling series of partial (or full) lockdowns until Spring 2021.
Unless public support is extended, the economic damage in Fall / Winter 2020 and Winter / Spring 2021 will be significant and will exceed that of the first three quarters of 2020 in terms of GDP decline, enterprise closure and public finance. The greatest impact will be on the closure of small enterprises and higher unemployment (despite furlough programmes).
We would like to remind everyone that the major source of infections in nearly every country that we are monitoring remains the domestic population, and that racist or xenophobic explanations about the spread of COVID through tourists or immigrants remain unfounded by public data.
We strongly urge our clients and friends to take all measures possible to safeguard their health.
If we can be of any support, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Philip Ammerman
Managing Partner
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